Monday, November 23, 2015

Ashish Kyal- Obama visit to Malaysia Dukascopy Interview - A Swiss Busin...

Ashish Kyal interview on Dukascopy Swiss Business channel - Will the MYR be able to hold on to those gains? His strategy for USDMYR, Ringgit, Dollar Currency Projections. What to expect from Obama visit to Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur Composite stock index (KLCI)..

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Nifty intraday Trading Strategy based on Elliott wave!

Nifty has continued to move in a predictable fashion.
It is now moving in a range after forming a low near 7710. Momentum is yet to pick up in either direction. Even during such scenario intraday strategy is providing good trading opportunities.

Below is the chart of Nifty showing range bound action:

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Below chart is picked up from daily research report)

Wave analysis: (Following was published today morning before equity markets opened)

In previous update we mentioned that, “In short, expect range bound movement to continue and wait for clear breakout from the mentioned levels for strong trending move to emerge.”

Nifty continued to move in a range as expected. Prices managed to take out the first resistance level at 7870 but failed to sustain above it and closed near 7850. Also we know from past that wave (x) usually acts as an important resistance. The down move from the highs of 8340 is non impulsive in form of triple correction and currently the third standard correction is still ongoing in the form of sideways action. Unless we see a strong break above the wave (x) level which is near ……. such sideways action can continue.

There is huge open interest buildup in the Call option at the strike of 8000. This indicates that crossing above this level is going to be difficult in this expiry and on downside 7700 strike put has maximum open interest indicating this as an important support area. This is altogether a different method to identify the key levels. Please note these levels are in close sync with the levels derived using Elliott wave pattern. We have been mentioning 7940 on upside and 7700 on downside as important as per the pattern analysis.

In addition to above we also show the daily chart with detailed Elliott wave counts along with below trading strategy mentioned in “The Financial Waves trading update”

Published on 20th November 2015 before markets opened: Long positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7820 then bounces back above 7860 with day's low as stop and target of 7900." BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved exactly as expected on Fridays session.. We cannot be more accurate on the levels. Nifty made intraday low near 7818 and then high near 7906. It moved exactly as expected and achieved the target level.

Published on 18th November 2015 morning before markets opened: "Short positions can be created on move below 7790 with day's high as stop and target of 7740." BANG ON!

Happened: On 18th November, Nifty moved lower exactly as expected and touched intraday low of 7725

Published on 17th November 2015 morning: Nifty can trade in sideways action over next few days. For today, short positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7830 and then moves back below 7780 with day's high as stop and target of 7740. Long positions can be created if Nifty move towards 7790 then bounces back above 7840 with day's low as stop and target of 7890.

Happened on 17th November trading session: We mentioned 7780 - 7790 as important support area. Nifty made a low near 7793 and reversed back from there. Also it has been moving in sideways pattern since then. For a derivative trader knowing that prices are going to trade in sideways action is also vital information.

The above strategies are mentioned in our daily research report “The Financial Waves Trading update”that covers in-depth analysis on Nifty using Elliott wave and trading strategy. In case you would like to know the trend for stocks as well subscribe now to “The Financial Waves short term update” that covers Nifty and stocks outlook.

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Friday, November 20, 2015

Nifty: Predicting the Elliott wave pattern on short term chart!

In last few days Nifty has showed high volatile moves in both the direction.
On 18th November 2015 Nifty closed on negative note at 7730 level losing more than 100 points whereas on 19th November 2015 prices showed strong up move and gained 110 points. Such kinds of moves are very dangerous from trading perspective and hence when not to trade is very important for traders. Is it possible to predict such kind of moves, so that one can be ready with pre - planned strategy? Answer is Yes and it is possible with the help of Elliott wave theory and Time Cycles which are the Advanced concept of Technical analysis. Below we have shown path of Nifty anticipated in the morning of 18th November 2015.

Nifty 60 mins chart: (shown on 18th November 2015)

Nifty 60 mins chart: (Happened on 19th November 2015)

There are times when one needs to stick with objective tools to understand the overall market. Nifty has been following our path brilliantly, so what is next from here on?

Subscribe to “The Financial Waves Short Term Update” which covers Nifty and 3 stocks where short term trading opportunity exist. For more information visit Pricing page

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

What is Elliott Wave, Bollinger Bands®, PCR Ratio, Time Cycles suggesting for Nifty Trend?

Bottom Line: Nifty traded in a range as expected. Sideways action can continue for few more days!

The below research is picked up from "The Financial Waves short term update" which is published daily in morning before equity markets open. This report has Elliott wave and other technical tools applied on Nifty along with 3 different stocks

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart:

Wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, In short, there is some loss of momentum on downside. Partial profits can be booked on existing short positions and remaining can be trailed to the highs of 7870. Move below 7710 is important to resume the downtrend. For now expect few days of sideways action!

Nifty moved in a range yesterday as expected. Even when the Global markets were strong positive prices failed to generate any strong positive momentum and traded in a narrow range. High made was at 7860 which was close to the level of 7870 mentioned as short term important level.

Measuring change in Sentiments using PCR: Put Call ratio has reduced drastically towards 0.72 levels. This level is not seen for many months now. A higher value indicates more put built up whereas a lower value indicates some buying interest emerging. Many technical analyst use this as a contrarian indicator but we have observed it to be working more number of times in favor rather than taking a contrarian stand. So a lower value in PCR ratio indicates more Call option builtup compared to puts which is a positive signal. However, this indicator acts only as a warning signal and we will not act on this alone. As mentioned earlier break above 7937 which is last leg of falling segment is must for confirming positive outlook.

Bollinger Bands: A sharp reversal on upside following a sharp selloff usually results into range bound action between the Bollinger Bands. We have shown these bands on hourly chart and the resistance is placed near 7870 whereas support is at 7720 levels. A decisive close above or below these levels will be required for short term direction.

Elliott wave pattern: The selloff from the highs of 8336 is in the form of triple correction and prices are currently in third standard correction. This third pattern fell short of the target level of 7600 which implies that it is only a part of wave (x) or this correction is forming a triangle pattern as shown on the hourly chart. This is only one of the probable scenarios and next few days of price action is now required to confirm the pattern under formation. 

Predictability and accuracy is also cyclical to an extent and when prices are near the reversal areas one should wait for break of levels for clear trend confirmation. We have enjoyed very high degree of accuracy so far and it is now time to keep the emotions under check and let us wait for market to decide in which direction it wants to head again. Technical indicators are suggesting that the down trend is in matured stage.

In short, expect range bound movement to continue for few more days. Decisive break above 7870 followed by 7940 will be positive whereas any move below 7700 will resume the downtrend. Bank Nifty has 108 days Time cycle low on 20th November and we are keeping a very close watch on this index for leading indications!

To subscribe, visit the Pricing Page - and select "The Financial Waves short term update" See yourself what is the future course of action for Indian equity markets and stocks! You can also reach us on +91 22 28831358 or +91 9920422202. For more information Contact US

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Nifty showing pause in the fall but await positive confirmation!

Below Research is picked up from 'The Financial Waves Short Term Update' 

Bottom Line: Some buying activity was seen after many days with Nifty closing in green above 7800. We can see range bound action for few days.

Nifty daily chart:

Nifty 60 mins chart: 

Wave analysis:

In previous update we mentioned that, As of now there is no indication of bottom formation and move below 7770 will continue the down move.

Nifty showed good recovery yesterday from the lower levels and prices formed a blue bar after 6 consecutive red bars (excluding the Diwali Muhurat trading). This indicates some buying emerging from the zone of 7700. Also Bank Nifty formed higher highs and higher lows on hourly scale in yesterday trading session thereby providing minor positive divergences between indices. Both of these developments are seen yesterday and so one should be cautious with the short positions as of now.

As there is no base formation we can expect range bound movement before any strong trending move can emerge again. The low formed near 7714 is going to be crucial and break below this level will be crucial to resume the downtrend.

As shown on hourly chart, prices moved very close to the downward sloping red channel. Decisive break above 7870 will break this channel on upside and indicate that short term low is in place. Next 2 to 3 days of price action is important and we are closely observing if there is base formation activity keeping index in a range.

In short, there is some loss of momentum on downside. Partial profits can be booked on existing short positions and remaining can be trailed to the highs of 7870. Move below 7710 is important to resume the downtrend. For now expect few days of sideways action! 

Currently wave (z) is in formation which has traveled only 61.8% of wave (y). This wave (z) is either forming a triangle or a Flat correction pattern and prices are currently in minor wave b of (z).

The last leg of fall has started from 7937 level and a faster retracement above this level is necessary to confirm Price and Time reversal and change in trend. Unless that happens sideways action is plausible over next few days.

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