Thursday, February 26, 2015

How Hurst Cycle along with Neo Wave can help in forecasting the pattern?

J.M.Hurst suggested that there are certain standard cycles which are universal and can be applied on any asset classes. 
Many cycle analysts often complain that cycles vanish without giving prior indication. The major reason being interaction of different cycles of varying magnitude.
The subject might look complicated but it is no different than Elliott wave principle. The major difference is Hurst Cycle analysis helps us to predict time and Elliott wave focuses more on price. This element of time can help us to forecast the Elliott wave pattern that can form in future. If you understand the logic at one level of degree, identifying and analyzing the cycles at higher or lower degree becomes more mechanical and easy.
As shown in below chart we have applied different cycle on Nifty Daily chart along with Neo Wave which helped us to predict the probable future path. The important part of Hurst Cycle is that if you know that major as well as smaller degree cycles are citing towards probable bottom or top then you can save yourself from making wrong trade. In market “when not to trade is the key to success”.
Anticipated: With the help of this Hurst cycle along with Advanced Elliott wave (Neo Wave) we expected that the rally started from 6650 in the month of May 2014 is probably making Diametric pattern. This pattern consists of 7 legs (a-b-c-d-e-f-g). Near the zone of 7600-7550 in the start of August 2014 we were expecting that wave d of Diametric pattern should complete where our Bottoming cycle as per Hurst cycle was due. As per these counts there was a high probability that Indian Market should resume upward journey towards new life time highs. Price as well as time confirmation clears the chaos and gives higher forecasting ability.
See in the below chart how we have applied Hurst Time cycle along with Neo Wave.
Nifty daily chart (Applying Neo wave and Hurst Time cycles)
Nifty daily chart (Happened so far)
So what next from here on?
Join US for the 2 days training workshop to be held on 14th & 15th March 2015 in Mumbai on the most advanced concepts of Technical analysis - Neo wave (Advanced Elliott wave) combined together with J.M.Hurst Time cycles – a powerful tool to forecasts Elliott wave patterns using Time cycles – A complete different way to look at market behaviorforecasting and trading!!! This training session for the first time will focus on more than 100 different practical charts applied across the asset class.
Book your seat now!
Where and when is the course?
The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar PremiereGoregoan, Mumbai on 14th & 15th March 2015. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.
Registration Fee:
The charges for the Training are Rs. 39900 + 12.36% Service tax. Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.This includes 1 week of FREE Elliott wave video before the training session itself along with 12 months of FREE Monthly Research reports that is worth 12,000 /-
How to Enroll?
To register for the training using either Credit Card or Netbanking visit http://wavesstrategy.com/payment/ and mention Product as “Neo waveTraining” and period as “1”
           OR
Fill in details at http://wavesstrategy.com/index.php/contact-us.html and we will get in touch with you
          OR
Write to us at   helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com /call us at +91 9920422202 /+91 22 28831358 

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Equity Trading Strategy before Budget





Equity Trading Strategy before Budget! For subscription to daily research reports using Elliott wave and applied technical analysis along with Time cycles visit www.wavesstrategy.com or Contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Monday, February 23, 2015

Nifty Elliott wave, Bollinger Bands®, MACD Trading Strategy before Budget!

Bottom Line: Nifty failed to close above 8900 or below 8800 and continued to move in a range. Break of either levels awaited for clear trend to emerge!

The below research was published today morning before equity markets opened in "The Financial Waves short term update" by Waves Strategy Advisors

Nifty daily chart:


Nifty 60 mins chart:
Elliott Wave Analysis:

Nifty had a range bound movement in previous week with prices touching the high of 8913 and low of 8793. There is a weekly Doji bar formation and a break of the range is important for clear direction ahead. Within this range IT stocks showed some outperformance and Bank Nifty failed to show any strong bounce back. Nifty has retraced around 80% of the previous down move whereas on other hand Bank Nifty which was leading the rally retraced only 50% of the entire down move. Also the bounce back in Bank Nifty is in overlapping formation so far which is not a good sign from medium term perspective. From weekly perspective, decisive break above 8913 will resume the positive trend whereas close below 8790 can result into short term downside reversal.

The recent up move which started in form of wave (c) of e from 8600 levels has so far taken 6 trading days. So a faster move back below 8600 in less than 6 days will indicate medium term reversal to downside. This will break the pivot level in lesser amount of time the up move took to form. Short term moving average of 20 days is also acting as an important proxy for trend. The support as per this average is also near 8600 levels.  

The movement of past few days has been exactly within the Bollinger Bands as shown on hourly chart. Prices have been moving sharply within the range but only to take support near the lower and upper areas of the Bollinger Bands. When on Thursday there was a strong move towards 8913 we expected a break on upside. However, prices reversed the very next day back towards 8800 support area. So now it is prudent to wait for an hourly close above 8913 or below 8790 for confirmation of the break of the band and start of the trend in that direction.

Range bound action has kept both Flat pattern and Triangle pattern possibility open. As mentioned above a faster reversal below 8600 will confirm truncation of wave (c) of e at the highs whereas on other side slower movement from here will indicate wave (d) of e is forming within a triangle pattern.

In short, Nifty is currently moving in a range but a clear trend should emerge on break of mentioned levels in this week. Leading sectors have failed to show any upside momentum which is a cautious sign and close below 8790 will result into short term downside reversal. Volatility can be high in current week ahead of Budget!

Attend the most comprehensive training on "Mastering Elliott wave - Neo wave with different Time cycle methods applied on more than 100 charts" The training is scheduled on 14th & 15th March in Mumbai at Grand Sarovar Hotel. For registration contact us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202

Event Sponsor: Cloud9 Hills Resort, A luxury stay among the hills in spacious cottages and Bungalows. Website www.cloud9lonavala.com


Thursday, February 19, 2015

Nifty Elliott – Neo wave double corrective post pattern implications and two stage confirmation!

Elliott wave defines different patterns. There are standard corrections namely Zigzag, Flat and Triangle
Apart from this there are complex corrective patterns that combine standard corrections with an intervening X waves and forms double Zigzag, Triple Zigzag, Double Flat, Triple Flat, Double / Triple combinations, etc. We do not only apply basic Elliott wave but apply  Advanced concepts of Elliott wave known as Neo wave There are various patterns defined in Neo wave apart from mentioned above. These new patterns are Diametric, Extracting Triangle, Neutral Trianglewave 5 extension terminal pattern. These new patterns as per Neo wave gives a complete different perspective to Elliott wave and we take a step ahead and combine this entire studies along with Time cycles to get important turning junctures.
Now let us analyze how these patterns practically helped us to predict the movement on Nifty. Below is part of the research published in daily research report “The Financial Waves short term update”
On February 13th 2015, we showed the following chart when Nifty was trading near 8710 levels:
Nifty 60 mins chart (as shown on 13th February 2015 morning)

Happened:  
As per research published on 13th February morning before markets opened:
Nifty two stage confirmations as per Neo wave: The break of the 0-b trendline now increases the odds that the entire downside correction from 8996 to 8470 might have completed and this can be the next leg on upside which might lead towards the previous highs.
In short, given the break above 8645 followed by 8700 levels the trend for Nifty is positive with the support of 8600 on downside. At times it is prudent to be quick in changing the stand when markets do not follow the time rules along with price.So a move back above 8645 and 8700 indicates that uptrend might be resuming. On upside further move above 8840 will provide second stage confirmation.
Double corrective post pattern implications: Neo wave –Advance Elliott wave suggests that a double corrective pattern has a post pattern implication of nearly 76.4% to 80%. This means that by analyzing the type of correction we can predict the strength of next trend. This gave the target zone of 8880 to 8900 levels.
Happened: Nifty moved higher and touched the level of 8900 on intraday movement today. Prices reversed back from there and are now trading near 8830 levels. This clearly shows how well the levels are respected and at times even short term forecasting can be done with very high accuracy. However, during middle of correction the predictability reduces. It is still very vital information to accordingly position size the trades.
Isnt it a thrilling experience to see markets moving amidst all the events exactly as per the rules and certain defined patterns?This is the power you can get when you learn about Neo wave which is advanced concepts of Elliott wave and do the forecasting yourself. To learn about this concept of technical analysis attend the two days workshop on Mastering Elliott wave with different Time cycles methods. This is the most exhaustive training on advanced concepts ever conducted. The training is scheduled on 14th and 15th March 2015 in Mumbai combined with more than 100 practical charts! For more information contact us at  helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202.

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Analyzing Gold: Text book Triple complex corrective Elliott wave pattern!

Elliott wave has been one of the important advanced technical analysis tool we use to determine the direction of an asset. 
This theory can applied on freely traded assets provided it is highly tradable and liquid. We all know Gold is one of the most traded asset and Elliott wave patterns work very well even though in complex formation.
Now below is the example of Triple correction pattern. This pattern tends to be channelized with very rhythmic movement. Also each correction is labeled as a-b-c which is followed by wave x and then the other standard correction. There can be maximum of three correction and two “x” waves. Now look at below chart of Gold and try to understand where we stand from maturity of downtrend!
This chart of Gold is shown in daily commodity research report “The Commodity waves”
Gold 60 mins April Contract chart:
Wave Analysis (published today morning before commodity markets opened)
Comex Gold has continued to move lower from $1300 levels and not a single bar has managed to close above the prior bar’s high.We have observed that this basic technique works very well in Gold during a trending move. So unless we see a close above prior bar high which is currently at …. the trend for Comex Gold will continue to be negative.
Over here in MCX Gold, the selloff has continued within the channel. We have been constantly mentioning about Gold underperformance as an investment class in our monthly updates. Nevertheless, short to medium term trend can reverse back on upside. However, over short term there is no positive confirmation and move above 27200 will be important for positivity which will break the short term downward moving channel.
Gold Triple correction Elliott wave pattern -As shown on hourly chart, prices are moving in complex corrective fashion and each of the leg have been equal. This is a typical characteristic of triple corrections and currently minor wave (a) is ongoing of 3rd correction. As mentioned earlier move above 26990 will indicate wave (b) on upside towards the channel at 27100 has started. Unless that happens avoid …….
In short, ………
Subscribe now to “The Commodity Waves” and trade objectively using systematic method rather than taking impulsive decision which is responsible for majority of losses. Attend the two days training workshop on Advanced Elliott wave – Neo wave and its combination with varied Time cycles methods. This is one of the most comprehensive trading courses that you can get using Advanced technical analysis! Contact US on helpdesk@wavesstrategy.comor on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 for more details or visit www.wavesstrategy.com